If You Can’t Pick a Winner Pick a Winning Race!
Ok so here is another horse racing system for you. If you can’t pick a winner pick a winning race! Find the race of the day and finding the winners is easy!
This system relies on two basic assertions:-
- There are some races where the outcome can be more easily predicted than others.
- There are some people who are far better at predicting winners than others.
Those may seem like very obvious points but it needs saying before we go any further.
Every day, there are people betting on those large field handicaps. They ignore the advice of experts and don’t consider statistical analysis.
That ‘go for glory’, betting on long shots approach just doesn’t work, but they can’t believe it when they lose their money and they put it down to bad luck.
It might sound boring, but the way to long-term profits is to bet sensibly on predictable races and always consider current form and expert analysis.
If you’re like most of us, and you seem to get more than your share of that bad luck, stop trying to pick winners yourself and instead start relying on people who know what they’re doing.
Professional newspaper tipsters know how to pick winners. They do it every day and their results are monitored more closely than any betting system on the market.
Last year’s No1 tipster was The Sun’s Templegate. If we can’t rely on him to find us a winner then we might as well give up gambling altogether.
Templegate is going to provide us with the human element in our system for this example.
There’s another source of information that we’re going to be using. This time it’s cold hard facts that we want. A purely mathematical approach based on form and past performance. No speculation, no gut feelings.
This data is also from The Sun and it’s their ‘spot rating’.
The top rated horse in each race is granted a rating of 99, with the others receive less according to their relative merits.
Templegate and the spot rating will predict more and better priced winners than any of us ever could, so what we’ve done here is to put all of the best factors into a simple set of rules that we’ve tested and found to be absolutely reliable. We’ll show you how to identify the ‘race of the day’ and then we’ll tell you how to pick the winner.
Don’t make the mistake of believing that these rules are too simple to be effective.
There’s absolutely no need for complicated maths or exotic betting techniques. Keep it simple, bet sensibly and won’t go far wrong.
Read through the rules and make sure you understand and can follow them correctly.
I wish you every possible success.
The Race Selection Process
First of all, the instructions for making your selections will be listed in their simplest form, and will then be explained in more detail further on.
Follow these three simple rules to identify the race of the day:-
1. Eliminate any race where: –
a) The race is to be run on an all-weather track.
b) There are more than eight runners.
c) Any horse has not been raced in the current season.
d) The favourite is forecasted to have odds of less than evens.
2. If you’ve eliminated every race, there is no bet. Continue again tomorrow.
3. From the races that have not been eliminated, select the one race that has the highest prize money on offer.
We have now selected what we believe is the most predictable race of the day. If it isn’t, then it isn’t far off and it’s certainly predictable enough to make this system effective.
That’s it for the race selection part of the system.
Now we need to identify which horse(s) we’re going to be betting on.
The Horse Selection Process
Now that we have identified the most predictable race of the day, we need the advice of someone who is good at predicting winners.
We are going to select either one or two horses in our chosen race, and to make our selections we are going to rely entirely on the advice given by:
1. Templegate – Britain’s No1 Newspaper Tipster. Our first horse is the one that Templegate has tipped in our selected race.
2. Spot Rating – The second horse will be the one awarded the top rating of 99.
By using both these two pieces of advice, we have an unbeatable combination of mathematical form analysis, and expert human judgement.
Sometimes Templegate and the spot rating will identify the same horse. Sometimes they won’t. Whether we’ve identified one or two horses, we’ve made our selection(s) for the day.
In more detail, the rules are as follows :-
1. To ensure that we are only betting on the most predictable race of the day, we need to eliminate any races that areunacceptably unpredictable.
Using your copy of The Sun, put a cross through every race which is eliminated by any of the following criteria :-
a) All-weather racing.
Statistics show that races run on the all-weather tracks i.e. Wolverhampton, Lingfield and Southwell are far less predictable than those on turf.
We don’t bet on all-weather races.
b) More than eight runners.
Quite simply, the more runners there are in a race, the more unpredictable it becomes. One obvious reason for this is that there is more competition.
Also, the track is more crowded making it more difficult to get a clear run.
We don’t bet on any race that has more than eight runners.
c) Races with horses that have not yet run in the current season.
We’re not saying that an un-raced horse is likely to win, but it is an unpredictable factor.
With plenty of races to choose from every day, we don’t need to take a risk on an unknown quantity.
To identify whether a horse has run in the current season, just look at the form figures printed to the left of the horse’s name. If there are no figures, or the right-hand figure is a dash “-“ or a slash “/”, then that horse hasn’t run recently enough for its history to be a reliable indicator of its current form.
We don’t bet on races where one or more of the horses in that race hasn’t run in the current season.
d) The predicted favourite is given estimated odds of less than evens.
We don’t want to bet on short-priced favourites because the returns are too low for our liking. Conversely, we don’t want to bet against short-priced favourites because they must have a good chance of beating our selections.
What we’re looking for are well-priced regular winners.
We don’t bet on races where the forecasted favourite is predicted to have odds of less than evens.
2. If you’ve eliminated all of the day’s racing, there is no bet.
3. Of all of the remaining races, our race of the day is going to be the one in which the prize money on offer is the greatest.
Then, in our race of the day, identify :-
1) The horse that has been tipped by Templegate
2) The horse that has been assigned a spot rating of 99.
1) and 2) might be the same horse or they might be two different horses.
We have now chosen either one or two quality horses in the most predictable race of the day.
The Staking System
As with the selection process, the staking system has been designed to be as simple to follow as possible.
The staking system consists of four very simple rules:
1) Decide on a daily stake that you’re comfortable betting with and that you can afford.
2) If we’ve selected just one horse, our whole stake is bet on that one horse.
3) When we’ve selected two horses, our stake is split equally between those two horses so we have two ‘half bets’.
4) We only bet when the odds offered on our selected horse/horses are more than evens. Shop around for the best odds, especially from the exchanges, but if you can’t find better than evens, there is no bet.
Now we just wait for the result.
On days where we’ve had half bets on two horses, we only need one of them to win to make a profit. Either one will make the bet profitable, but we’ll obviously be hoping for the one with the best odds.
If we’ve had a full bet on just one horse from our race of the day, it needs to win but when it does, we win more because we have a full unit stake riding in it.
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