How to Pick a Winning Favourite Horse

Picking The “Right” Favourite Horse To Win

OK, so have picked a race to bet on and you are going for the favourite horse to win. But why? Only 33% of favourites win so what makes your selection any different from the other 66% of losing favourites that we all see most days?

The question that you should now be asking is “What Similarities do most of the 33% of winning favourites share and how do I identify them.


Winning Favourite Horse

To start with, did you know that the majority of winners next time out won their race last time out? Previous form is the first category to consider. Best results are found within favourites that placed 1st, 2nd and 3rd in their last race so be cautious about betting on animals without this previous form. It is easy to look at the form of horses on Betfair as it will give you the past 8-10 results for every horse.

Next step is to identify when your selected favourite ran last. It may have won its last race but if this were 2 months ago, the strength of your selection will be weakened. Best results are found within favourites that raced only four days ago or less.



Finally the “x” factor. This is where you come in. Ask yourself:

  • Is the horse that you have selected, being ridden by a Top Jockey? Does it have a successful Trainer?
  • Is it the spot form in the Newspaper that you buy or assigned to win by more than 1 reputable tipster?
  • Are their more than 12 runners in the field (making accurate selection more difficult)
  • What does the rest of the field look like? If it’s very weak then obviously, your selection will be strengthened.
  • What are the probabilities of a shock result? To avoid these why not avoid backing your selected favourite when the going is “Soft or Heavy”. Also if there are animals in your selected race that have no form, (IE, first time out with no previous race results) its best to avoid.

The professional gambler recognises the big picture and will learn from as many sources as possible. To join them you must be disciplined and systematic. You may only find three to four bets a month using this advice but they will be very strong indeed.

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  • IanB

    I never ever ever bet on favourites to win. I lay them to lose sometimes. I just can’t ever find enough value in them but i am obviously looking at them wrong.

    Great article by the way.

  • NatShaw

    This is a very good read. Betting on favourites is a fast road to losing your money unless you can pick out the favourites that are in it to win it. As ian said a lot of money can be made laying favourites but the same rules apply.

  • Paulo

    Think im missing the x factor lol

  • Hi! I came across your website and really enjoyed the subject matter it contains. Due to your content on Horse racing. Can you teach me where I should go in order to get best odds on the tote?